2009 NBA Western Conference Semifinal Preview

May 04, 2009 • General

WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

                                             VS.               

(65-17) 1st Pacific                                                  (53-29) 2nd Southwest

Point Guard: When it comes to point guard both teams have solid starters here with Derek Fisher for the Lakers and Aaron Brooks for the Rockets. While both have contributed to their teams success, only Brooksplayed an integral role in the Rockets first round success. During the first round series against the Utah Jazz, Fisher averaged a solid 29 minutes but only 9.2 points and 3 assists. For the Rockets, Brooks averaged 15.3 points and with 4.3 assists in 31.3 minutes. Although the stats are highly favourable for the Rockets in this particular category, Fisher’s playoff experience combined with his big shot ability including the oh so sweet three pointer against the Spurs with .4 seconds left back in 2004. Fisher is obviously not going to be a main offensive factor here, so he should be looking to set up screens and or dish out assists to Kobe and Pau Gasol when given the opportunity. Brooks on the other hand is going to have to continue his solid play from the 1st round against the Blazers if the Rockets plan to remain competitive. Nevertheless, experience is key here and the Rockets lack it. Edge: Lakers

Shooting Guard: The Lakers are led by MVP nominee Kobe Bryant who remains the best player on earth. The Rockets will be starting Ron Artest at the shooting guard position. In the first round Kobe averaged 26.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.9 assists in 36 minutes. Artest meanwhile averaged 17.1 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.3 assists in 35 minutes. Unlike past years in which Kobe has chosen to shoulder nearly all of the offensive load he has plenty of supporting cast members around from last years run. Kobe will obviously get his shots early and often throughout the series and any defense can only hope to contain the damage. If the Rockets can hold Kobe to under 30 points, the series will be competitive. If he approaches any shooting percentage above 60% and 30+ points it is going to be difficult to see how the Rockets can remain in the series. Artest has been a highly volatile player over the years but has avoided antics lately. He will have to continue scoring much like he did in the first series and try to dish out some assists to Yao in the low post. Edge: Lakers

Small Forward: Trevor Ariza is probably not the most well known starter on the Lakers, but he has played well in his role thus far. During the first round he averaged 8.9 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2 assists in 24 minutes. On the other side of the court will be Shane Battier, the former Duke star. Battier averaged 7.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists in nearly 34 minutes. As neither player has been much of a presence offensively, their roles will certainly be more important defensively. Battier will undoubtedly be called upon to double team Kobe in many situations and limit the damage. Ariza meanwhile will probably be used to put pressure on Artest or double team Yao if the situation calls for it. Edge: Rockets

Power Forward: At the position of power forward the Lakers have the presence of all-star Pao Gasol. The Rockets will counter with the lesser known Luis Scola. Gasol averaged 18.9 points, 9.6 rebounds and 3.5 assists in 37 minutes per game. Scola meanwhile averaged 12.7 points, 8.8 rebounds and 1.5 assists in 30 minutes. Gasol will serve as the secondary threat for the Lakers behind Kobe and aggressively try to drive in the lane. Scola will have his hands full here and can only hope to stop the potential scoring barrage of Gasol. Edge: Lakers

Center: At the center postion the Lakers have 4th year player Andrew Bynum who has developed nicely into a starter. The Rockets have the towering presence of Yao Ming. Against the Jazz, Bynum’s numbers were stellar as he averaged 14.3 points, 8 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game in 29 minutes of play. Yao led his team in the first round with 19.7 points, 9.9 rebounds and 1.8 assists in nearly 34 minutes per game. Bynum is going to have a lot to deal with here as Yao’s three inch height advantage will give him a definite advantage. If Yao can continue to put up around twenty points per game, the Rockets will be pleased. Bynum on the other hand, much like Gasol is going to be called upon to make open shots when Kobe gets double or triple teamed. Edge: Rockets

Coaching: The Lakers are coached by Phil Jackson while the Rockets are coached by Rick Adelman. There is really little left to be said about Phil Jackson as he has nine NBA championships which is still tied for most with Red Auerbach. Adelman meanwhile has also been fairly successful as he led the Kings to the playoffs in all eight seasons as a coach and now both years with the Rockets. Due to the many different times that Adelman lost to the Lakers in the playoffs with the Kings, he will definitely be looking for some payback. Although, it will definitely be an uphill battle, Adelman must be commended for finally getting the Rockets over the first round hump. Edge: Lakers

Prediction: This series is definitely going to be an uphill battle all the way for the Rockets. Although they definitely have the talent to pull off a potential upset, they are going to have to stop Kobe,Gasol and Bynum in four different games. Ultimately, they are just overmatched in nearly every department. Lakers in 5

                     VS.                         

(54-28) 1st Northwest                                                 (50-32) 3rd Southwest

Point Guard: The Nuggets have one of the best in the game at this position in their key point guard Chauncey Billups, while the Mavericks have Jason Kidd. In the first round matchup with the New Orleans Hornets, Billups averaged 22.6 points, 4 rebounds and 7.4 assists in 36 minutes per game. Kidd was slightly less productive averaging 10 points, 6 rebounds and 5.6 assists in 37.2 minutes. When the Nuggets traded Allen Iverson for Billups in the middle of the season, they could not have predicted that the trade would work out so well. However, Billups has been brilliant in the half season for the Nuggets. Despite being past his heyday, Jason Kidd remains just as dangerous as ever when it comes to dishing out assists. Overall, both of these players are going to have to run the offensive sets well if they want to win. Although both of these players are amongst the best to have played their position in the current era, Billups is more of a multithreat than Kidd. Edge: Nuggets

Shooting Guard: At this position it is fairly a toss up as the Nuggets have Dahntay Jones while the Mavericks use Antoine Wright. Neither player served as a particularly inspiring threat in their respective first round series. Jones averaged 8.2 points, 2.2 rebounds and .2 assists per game in nearly 19 minutes. Wright averaged 5.2 points 1.4 rebounds and .4 assists in 13 minutes. Overall, neither player figures to be a major player. Edge: Even

Small Forward: The Nuggets will put forth Carmelo Anthony at this position while the Mavericks will counter with Josh Howard. In the first round, Anthony led his team with 24 points, 6rebounds and 5.2 assists in nearly 37 minutes of action. Howard’s numbers were also quite good as he averaged 18.8 points, 5.4 rebounds and 1.4 assists in 32 minutes. If the Nuggets plan to win the series, they are going to have to rely heavily on Anthony for his continued offensive presence both down low and outside. Howard will have to keep up the offensive production but attempt to limit the point totals for Anthony. Edge: Nuggets

Power Forward: Kenyon Martin will look to post more solid postseason numbers in this round, but will be going up against the offensive leader of the Mavericks, Dirk Nowitzki. Martin’s numbers in the first round were 10 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3 assists per game in 32.6 minutes. Nowitzki led his team in scoring averaging 19.2 points, 8.6 rebounds and 2.2 assists in 37 minutes. Martin may not pose the same offensive threat to score as he did back when he was with the Nets in the early part of the decade, but he doesn’t have to as that role will fall upon others. Nowitzki is going to be a crucial component if the Mavericks are going to win. If Nowitzki is contained by Martin then the edge in the series will definitely be for the Nuggets. Edge: Mavericks

Center: The Nuggets have the Brazilian star Nene at center while the Mavericks will match up against him with Erik Dampier. Nene averaged 9 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.4 assists in 29.6 minutes. Dampier had slightly lower numbers averaging 8.4 points, 8.4 rebounds and 1 assist per game in 30 minutes. While neither player is particularly dominant, they will attempt to create a presence down low and get as many offensive boards as possible. In this case, both players have similar numbers and neither one really stands out. Edge: Even

Coaching: The Nuggets are led by coach George Karl who has the Nuggets returning to the playoffs for the fifth time in his five years as coach. The Mavericks are led by newcomer Rick Carlisle who has them in the playoffs in his first year. Karl has not had much postseason success as the Nuggets have lost in the first round the previous four times. However, this year it appears to be different as they are playing a much more balanced brand of basketball. Dallas seems to make the playoffs every year regardless of who is the coach only to falter. Both coaches have done very well both with their current teams and prior ones as well. However, Karl is lucky in that he won’t have to face massive pressure if they let a game or two slip. Although Dallas owner Mark Cuban has been quite thus far, I expect him to blow up at some point in this series and it will be highly detrimental to the success of the Mavericks. Edge: Nuggets

Prediction: This series will certainly be a lot closer than the other series in this conference, however I expect the Nuggets to win due to the offensive presence of Carmelo and Billups. However, they will also need some contributions from Nene and Kenyon Martin if they plan to win. The Mavericks meanwhile will be relying heavily on the trio of Nowitzki, Howard and Terry, but I just don’t think it will be enough in the end. Nuggets in 7.